Issues that are important to all of us. I try to weed through the bullshit to get to the stories that should be seen. This site is for reasonable critical thinking minds. Everything on this BLOG is true to my knowledge. The word "bullshit" does not imply that anything you read here is bullshit.
Showing posts with label globalization. Show all posts
Showing posts with label globalization. Show all posts
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Americans Working Much Harder for Less Pay
Feel like you’re working a lot harder these days, putting in longer hours for the same pay — or even less? The latest round of government data on worker productivity indicates that you probably are.
The Labor Department said Tuesday that the American work force produced, at an annual rate, 6.4 percent more of the goods they made and services they provided in the second quarter of this year compared to a year ago. At the same time, “unit labor costs” — the amount employers paid for all that extra work — fell by 5.8 percent. The jump in productivity was higher than expected; the cut in labor costs more than double expectations.
That is, despite the deep job cuts of the past year, workers who remain on the payroll are filling in and making up the work that had been done by their departed colleagues. In some cases, that extra work came with a smaller paycheck.
The higher worker output and lower labor costs have been good news for companies struggling through the worst recession since World War II. So far, some 70 percent of companies in the S&P 500 have turned in better-than-expected profits for the latest quarter.
But wage cuts and lost paychecks could seriously jeopardize the recovery of a U.S. economy that still relies on consumer spending for two-thirds of its power.
“You have a very severely harmed, injured consumer in terms of income slow down, job uncertainly, job loss, wealth loss, inadequate savings, high debt levels,” said Laura Tyson, an Obama advisor who headed the Council of Economic Advisors in the Clinton administration. “The consumer, I don’t see powering us out of this recession.”
Many economists believe the current recession is on the verge of ending. And if, as many expect, the economy begins expanding again in the second half of this year, companies may begin adding more shifts and re-hiring workers as demand for their products increases.
That improving trend — a slowdown in the pace of the downturn — was confirmed in this month’s Adversity Index from msnbc.com and Moody's Economy.com, which measures the economic health of 381 metro areas and all 50 states. The index includes four components —employment, housing starts, housing prices and industrial production — and classifies each as being in recession, at risk, recovering or expanding.
So far, none of the areas is in the “recovery” stage. But according to the index, 85 metro areas are now in a "moderating recession" – up from 23 the month before.
“A lot of these places were contracting at a much faster pace in the first quarter than they are now,” said Andrew Gledhill, an economist at Moody's Economy.com, which prepares the index.
With job cuts slowing, corporate profits improving and the housing market showing signs of a bottom, many analysts are forecasting that U.S. Gross Domestic Product will turn positive again this quarter after a sharp over the past year.
The Labor Department said Tuesday that the American work force produced, at an annual rate, 6.4 percent more of the goods they made and services they provided in the second quarter of this year compared to a year ago. At the same time, “unit labor costs” — the amount employers paid for all that extra work — fell by 5.8 percent. The jump in productivity was higher than expected; the cut in labor costs more than double expectations.
That is, despite the deep job cuts of the past year, workers who remain on the payroll are filling in and making up the work that had been done by their departed colleagues. In some cases, that extra work came with a smaller paycheck.
The higher worker output and lower labor costs have been good news for companies struggling through the worst recession since World War II. So far, some 70 percent of companies in the S&P 500 have turned in better-than-expected profits for the latest quarter.
But wage cuts and lost paychecks could seriously jeopardize the recovery of a U.S. economy that still relies on consumer spending for two-thirds of its power.
“You have a very severely harmed, injured consumer in terms of income slow down, job uncertainly, job loss, wealth loss, inadequate savings, high debt levels,” said Laura Tyson, an Obama advisor who headed the Council of Economic Advisors in the Clinton administration. “The consumer, I don’t see powering us out of this recession.”
Many economists believe the current recession is on the verge of ending. And if, as many expect, the economy begins expanding again in the second half of this year, companies may begin adding more shifts and re-hiring workers as demand for their products increases.
That improving trend — a slowdown in the pace of the downturn — was confirmed in this month’s Adversity Index from msnbc.com and Moody's Economy.com, which measures the economic health of 381 metro areas and all 50 states. The index includes four components —employment, housing starts, housing prices and industrial production — and classifies each as being in recession, at risk, recovering or expanding.
So far, none of the areas is in the “recovery” stage. But according to the index, 85 metro areas are now in a "moderating recession" – up from 23 the month before.
“A lot of these places were contracting at a much faster pace in the first quarter than they are now,” said Andrew Gledhill, an economist at Moody's Economy.com, which prepares the index.
With job cuts slowing, corporate profits improving and the housing market showing signs of a bottom, many analysts are forecasting that U.S. Gross Domestic Product will turn positive again this quarter after a sharp over the past year.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
China Calls for Reform of Global Monetary System
China called Sunday for reform of the global currency system, dominated by the dollar, which it said is the root cause of the global financial crisis.
"We should attach great importance to reform of the international monetary system," Chinese Vice Finance Minister Li Yong told the spring IMF/World Bank Development Committee meeting in Washington.
A "flawed international monetary system is the institutional root cause of the crisis and a major defect in the current international economic governance structure," Li said, according to a statement.
"Accordingly, we should improve the regulatory mechanism for reserve currency issuance, maintain the relative stability of exchange rates of major reserve currencies and promote a diverse and sound international currency system."
As the world's main reserve currency, US dollars account for most governments' foreign exchange reserves and are used to set international market prices for oil, gold and other currencies.
As the issuer of the key reserve currency, the United States also pays less for products and can borrow more easily.
Li did not name the dollar but in late March the People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said he wanted to replace the US unit which has served as the world's reserve currency since World War II.
"The outbreak of the crisis and its spillover to the entire world reflected the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system," Zhou said, suggesting the International Monetary Fund could play a greater role.
Zhou's remarks sparked uproar and concern since China has the world's largest forex reserves at 1.9 trillion dollars. China became the world's top holder of US Treasury bonds last September, and currently holds around 800 billion dollars, according to official US data.
Beijing has voiced increasing concern over its massive exposure to the US dollar as the global crisis has steadily deepened but after some tense exchanges, the issue appears to have eased in recent weeks.
The role of the dollar gets caught up in Washington's own complaints that China unfairly keeps the value of its own currency undervalued so as to promote its exports.
The resulting massive US trade deficit with China is one of the main global imbalances which the US government says has to be removed to set the world economy back on a more sustainable growth track.
"We should attach great importance to reform of the international monetary system," Chinese Vice Finance Minister Li Yong told the spring IMF/World Bank Development Committee meeting in Washington.
A "flawed international monetary system is the institutional root cause of the crisis and a major defect in the current international economic governance structure," Li said, according to a statement.
"Accordingly, we should improve the regulatory mechanism for reserve currency issuance, maintain the relative stability of exchange rates of major reserve currencies and promote a diverse and sound international currency system."
As the world's main reserve currency, US dollars account for most governments' foreign exchange reserves and are used to set international market prices for oil, gold and other currencies.
As the issuer of the key reserve currency, the United States also pays less for products and can borrow more easily.
Li did not name the dollar but in late March the People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said he wanted to replace the US unit which has served as the world's reserve currency since World War II.
"The outbreak of the crisis and its spillover to the entire world reflected the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system," Zhou said, suggesting the International Monetary Fund could play a greater role.
Zhou's remarks sparked uproar and concern since China has the world's largest forex reserves at 1.9 trillion dollars. China became the world's top holder of US Treasury bonds last September, and currently holds around 800 billion dollars, according to official US data.
Beijing has voiced increasing concern over its massive exposure to the US dollar as the global crisis has steadily deepened but after some tense exchanges, the issue appears to have eased in recent weeks.
The role of the dollar gets caught up in Washington's own complaints that China unfairly keeps the value of its own currency undervalued so as to promote its exports.
The resulting massive US trade deficit with China is one of the main global imbalances which the US government says has to be removed to set the world economy back on a more sustainable growth track.
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
Sunday, February 01, 2009
Friday, January 09, 2009
There is No Justice
If we were kids that were on a playground and one kid was beating the crap out of another, wouldn't anyone stop the fight? Especially if one kid was doing all the beating and the other was throwing maybe one punch to this other kids 50 punches?
Then why is the world just sitting around and watching Israel kill people?
I actually saw a commercial on TV that was pro Israel. It stated that many Jews are killed and was asking for money to help them. No mention about the Palestinians, who though have been murdered and had their land taken from them. Can you believe there was a commercial for Israel? The commercial was acting like Israel is the victim and cannot help itself. Israel has killed over 700 people since last week alone! 4 Israelis have been killed. That is a bit dis-portioned.
Imagine if that was 700 of our people that have been killed...........
I still say if God does exist, I think he will have something to say to his "chosen people" for all the blood that is on their hands....
I ain't pro Jew or pro Palestinian. I am pro stop killing each other! We as a race will never get beyond this time now till we stop the killing. It will be impossible for us to evolve!
Many of us suffer everyday for the bullshit of myths, legends and other distractions. I am so tired that if I found out I was gonna die of cancer, I would not care. This world has no future. Plus I am ashamed to even be a human being when I look around at the world. To me it would not matter. What am I leaving? A world filled with hate, murder, ignorance, stupidity.......
I really dislike our world because it is based on who has what and who knows who. There is no justice in this world anymore. None, zero, zip, zilch......
Madoff ripped off billions and is on home arrest in this million dollar apartment. There is no fuckin' justice what so ever....this will be why we fail as a race. Holding down those who are without while they raise up those who do. I was caught with a plant and you would have thought I was a terrorist. Madoff steals billions and gets nothing so far.
If this is the best "God" can do, then he is one fucked up being. Maybe he is a bipolar twelve year old with A.D.D. and an anger management issue.
"You can't smell your own shit on your knees or see the forest for the trees....." - Marilyn Manson
Wake up....Open Your Eyes....Grow up.....
Then why is the world just sitting around and watching Israel kill people?
I actually saw a commercial on TV that was pro Israel. It stated that many Jews are killed and was asking for money to help them. No mention about the Palestinians, who though have been murdered and had their land taken from them. Can you believe there was a commercial for Israel? The commercial was acting like Israel is the victim and cannot help itself. Israel has killed over 700 people since last week alone! 4 Israelis have been killed. That is a bit dis-portioned.
Imagine if that was 700 of our people that have been killed...........
I still say if God does exist, I think he will have something to say to his "chosen people" for all the blood that is on their hands....
I ain't pro Jew or pro Palestinian. I am pro stop killing each other! We as a race will never get beyond this time now till we stop the killing. It will be impossible for us to evolve!
Many of us suffer everyday for the bullshit of myths, legends and other distractions. I am so tired that if I found out I was gonna die of cancer, I would not care. This world has no future. Plus I am ashamed to even be a human being when I look around at the world. To me it would not matter. What am I leaving? A world filled with hate, murder, ignorance, stupidity.......
I really dislike our world because it is based on who has what and who knows who. There is no justice in this world anymore. None, zero, zip, zilch......
Madoff ripped off billions and is on home arrest in this million dollar apartment. There is no fuckin' justice what so ever....this will be why we fail as a race. Holding down those who are without while they raise up those who do. I was caught with a plant and you would have thought I was a terrorist. Madoff steals billions and gets nothing so far.
If this is the best "God" can do, then he is one fucked up being. Maybe he is a bipolar twelve year old with A.D.D. and an anger management issue.
"You can't smell your own shit on your knees or see the forest for the trees....." - Marilyn Manson
Wake up....Open Your Eyes....Grow up.....
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The Greedy Man Who Conned the World
What the Fuck Did He Need All This Money For?
Investors around the world are counting the spiralling cost of the biggest fraud in history, a $50bn scam that has ensnared billionaire businessmen and tiny charities alike and whose tentacles have stretched further and deeper than anyone imagined.
The fallout from the arrest of the Wall Street grandee Bernard Madoff was continuing to grow last night, as institution after institution detailed the extent of their possible losses, and the victims in the UK were headlined by HSBC and the Royal Bank of Scotland, which is majority-owned by the British Government.
A charity set up by the Hollywood director Steven Spielberg was among those revealed to be among the victims, along with a foundation set up by Mort Zuckerman, one of the richest media and property magnates in the United States, dozens of Jewish organisations, sports team owners and a New Jersey senator.
But the biggest confessions were coming from Wall Street, from the City of London and from the headquarters of European banks and from banks around the world. They have poured billions of dollars into Mr Madoff's too-good-to-be-true investment fund, which appeared to post double-digit annual returns come rain or shine.
RBS said that it could take a hit of £400m if American authorities find there is nothing left of the money Mr Madoff had pretended to be investing for many years. HSBC, Britain's largest bank, said a "small number" of its clients had exposure totalling $1bn in Mr Madoff's funds.
The Spanish bank Santander, which owns Abbey and the savings business of Bradford & Bingley in the UK, could be on the hook for $3.1bn. Japan's Nomura said it has hundreds of millions of dollars at risk. City analysts said that even banks who invested only on behalf of clients could end up on the hook, because clients are almost certain to sue for bad advice.
Mr Madoff confessed last week that his business was "all one great big lie". The investment returns were fake, and he had been paying old clients with money from new ones. In its conception, the scam is a classic. In its size, it is breathtaking, eclipsing anything seen before. He personally estimated the losses at $50bn, according to the FBI, and as investors owned up to their exposure yesterday that did not seem impossible. For 48 years, until Thursday morning, Mr Madoff was one of Wall Street's best-respected investment managers, able to harvest money from a vast network of contacts and to trade on his name as a former chairman of the Nasdaq stock exchange.
His arrest has further shaken confidence in the barely regulated hedge fund industry, which is already suffering some of the worst times in its short history. Mr Madoff – who is now on a $10m bail and under orders not to leave the New York area – was able to operate his fraud under the noses of regulators for many years.
Mort Zuckerman, the owner of the New York Daily News and one of the 200 richest Americans, said that one of the managers of his charitable trust had been so taken by Mr Madoff that he invested $9bn with him, including all the money from Mr Zuckerman's trust. "These are astonishing numbers to be placed with one fund manager," he said. "I think we have another break in whatever level confidence needs to exist in money markets."
Nicola Horlick, the British fund manager known as Superwoman for juggling her high-flying City career with bringing up five children, turned her fire on US regulators. Her Bramdean Alternatives investment fund had put 9 per cent – about £10m – with Mr Madoff. She told BBC Radio: "This is the biggest financial scandal, probably in the history of the markets."
Investors around the world are counting the spiralling cost of the biggest fraud in history, a $50bn scam that has ensnared billionaire businessmen and tiny charities alike and whose tentacles have stretched further and deeper than anyone imagined.
The fallout from the arrest of the Wall Street grandee Bernard Madoff was continuing to grow last night, as institution after institution detailed the extent of their possible losses, and the victims in the UK were headlined by HSBC and the Royal Bank of Scotland, which is majority-owned by the British Government.
A charity set up by the Hollywood director Steven Spielberg was among those revealed to be among the victims, along with a foundation set up by Mort Zuckerman, one of the richest media and property magnates in the United States, dozens of Jewish organisations, sports team owners and a New Jersey senator.
But the biggest confessions were coming from Wall Street, from the City of London and from the headquarters of European banks and from banks around the world. They have poured billions of dollars into Mr Madoff's too-good-to-be-true investment fund, which appeared to post double-digit annual returns come rain or shine.
RBS said that it could take a hit of £400m if American authorities find there is nothing left of the money Mr Madoff had pretended to be investing for many years. HSBC, Britain's largest bank, said a "small number" of its clients had exposure totalling $1bn in Mr Madoff's funds.
The Spanish bank Santander, which owns Abbey and the savings business of Bradford & Bingley in the UK, could be on the hook for $3.1bn. Japan's Nomura said it has hundreds of millions of dollars at risk. City analysts said that even banks who invested only on behalf of clients could end up on the hook, because clients are almost certain to sue for bad advice.
Mr Madoff confessed last week that his business was "all one great big lie". The investment returns were fake, and he had been paying old clients with money from new ones. In its conception, the scam is a classic. In its size, it is breathtaking, eclipsing anything seen before. He personally estimated the losses at $50bn, according to the FBI, and as investors owned up to their exposure yesterday that did not seem impossible. For 48 years, until Thursday morning, Mr Madoff was one of Wall Street's best-respected investment managers, able to harvest money from a vast network of contacts and to trade on his name as a former chairman of the Nasdaq stock exchange.
His arrest has further shaken confidence in the barely regulated hedge fund industry, which is already suffering some of the worst times in its short history. Mr Madoff – who is now on a $10m bail and under orders not to leave the New York area – was able to operate his fraud under the noses of regulators for many years.
Mort Zuckerman, the owner of the New York Daily News and one of the 200 richest Americans, said that one of the managers of his charitable trust had been so taken by Mr Madoff that he invested $9bn with him, including all the money from Mr Zuckerman's trust. "These are astonishing numbers to be placed with one fund manager," he said. "I think we have another break in whatever level confidence needs to exist in money markets."
Nicola Horlick, the British fund manager known as Superwoman for juggling her high-flying City career with bringing up five children, turned her fire on US regulators. Her Bramdean Alternatives investment fund had put 9 per cent – about £10m – with Mr Madoff. She told BBC Radio: "This is the biggest financial scandal, probably in the history of the markets."
Sunday, November 09, 2008
UK's Brown: Time to Build Global Society
The international financial crisis has given world leaders a unique opportunity to create a truly global society, Britain's Prime Minister Gordon Brown will say in a keynote foreign policy speech on Monday.
In his annual speech at the Lord Mayor's Banquet, Brown -- who has spearheaded calls for the reform of international financial institutions -- will say Britain, the United States and Europe are key to forging a new world order.
"The alliance between Britain and the U.S. -- and more broadly between Europe and the U.S. -- can and must provide leadership, not in order to make the rules ourselves, but to lead the global effort to build a stronger and more just international order," an excerpt from the speech says.
Brown and other leaders meet in Washington next weekend to discuss longer term solutions for dealing with economic issues following a series of coordinated moves on interest rates and to recapitalize banks in the wake of the financial crisis.
"Uniquely in this global age, it is now in our power to come together so that 2008 is remembered not just for the failure of a financial crash that engulfed the world but for the resilience and optimism with which we faced the storm, endured it and prevailed," Brown will say in his speech on Monday evening.
"...And if we learn from our experience of turning unity of purpose into unity of action, we can together seize this moment of change in our world to create a truly global society."
According to a summary of the speech released by his office, Brown will set out five great challenges the world faces.
These are: terrorism and extremism and the need to reassert faith in democracy; the global economy; climate change; conflict and mechanisms for rebuilding states after conflict; and meeting goals on tackling poverty and disease.
Brown will also identify five stages for tackling the economy, starting with recapitalizing banks so they can resume lending to families and businesses, and better international co-ordination of fiscal and monetary policy.
He also wants immediate action to stop the spread of the financial crisis to middle-income countries, with a new facility for the International Monetary Fund, and agreement on a global trade deal, as well as reform of the global financial system.
"My message is that we must be: internationalist not protectionist; interventionist not neutral; progressive not reactive; and forward looking not frozen by events. We can seize the moment and in doing so build a truly global society."
In his annual speech at the Lord Mayor's Banquet, Brown -- who has spearheaded calls for the reform of international financial institutions -- will say Britain, the United States and Europe are key to forging a new world order.
"The alliance between Britain and the U.S. -- and more broadly between Europe and the U.S. -- can and must provide leadership, not in order to make the rules ourselves, but to lead the global effort to build a stronger and more just international order," an excerpt from the speech says.
Brown and other leaders meet in Washington next weekend to discuss longer term solutions for dealing with economic issues following a series of coordinated moves on interest rates and to recapitalize banks in the wake of the financial crisis.
"Uniquely in this global age, it is now in our power to come together so that 2008 is remembered not just for the failure of a financial crash that engulfed the world but for the resilience and optimism with which we faced the storm, endured it and prevailed," Brown will say in his speech on Monday evening.
"...And if we learn from our experience of turning unity of purpose into unity of action, we can together seize this moment of change in our world to create a truly global society."
According to a summary of the speech released by his office, Brown will set out five great challenges the world faces.
These are: terrorism and extremism and the need to reassert faith in democracy; the global economy; climate change; conflict and mechanisms for rebuilding states after conflict; and meeting goals on tackling poverty and disease.
Brown will also identify five stages for tackling the economy, starting with recapitalizing banks so they can resume lending to families and businesses, and better international co-ordination of fiscal and monetary policy.
He also wants immediate action to stop the spread of the financial crisis to middle-income countries, with a new facility for the International Monetary Fund, and agreement on a global trade deal, as well as reform of the global financial system.
"My message is that we must be: internationalist not protectionist; interventionist not neutral; progressive not reactive; and forward looking not frozen by events. We can seize the moment and in doing so build a truly global society."
Sunday, November 02, 2008
Bush Leaves U.S. Battered & Bruised
In his two terms in the White House, US President George W. Bush has presided over a precipitous fall in America's reputation around the world. History is likely to judge him a failure. Now, his successor will have to dig the US out of a deep hole.The Chinese astronaut Zhai Zhigang was filled with pride as he reported to Chinese mission control from his space capsule. It was Saturday, Sept. 27 and Zhigang was about embark on his first space walk, marking a breakthrough for the space program of this rising power in the Far East. President Hu Jintao looked jubilant in the live television broadcast. With its successful excursion outside the space capsule, the People's Republic, as a nation in space, drew level with the United States and Russia in one important respect. Indeed, Beijing is already discussing a manned expedition to the moon. Once exclusively American, the Earth's biggest satellite may soon become Chinese as well.
Almost at the same time, at a point halfway around the earth, a finance minister was doing something highly unusual: falling to his knees in a gesture of desperation. The Republican Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson was kneeling before the Democratic Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, begging her to do everything in her power to make sure that the $700-billion bailout package for the US economy was passed. Paulson's unmistakable message was that the United States was on the brink of an abyss.
Meanwhile, the White House, the center of power in this superpower, seemed oddly abandoned, as if no one were at home. As if 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, D.C., were temporarily closed for renovations. It wasn't, of course, but amazingly enough, had it been, hardly anyone would have noticed. The master of the house, certainly, would be missed by only a few. Bush did address his fellow Americans to talk about the financial crisis, but he seemed oddly disinterested. And even in these dramatic times, hardly anyone was listening. He may still be the president, but is he no longer shaping policy.
"The fundamentals of our economy are strong," the president said in August. But what could be more disconcerting than to be told by George W. Bush that everyone is going to be alright?
Click the title of the Blog to Read More
Friday, October 31, 2008
The Growing Risk of a World War
The world faces a growing risk of conflict over the next 20 to 30 years amid an unprecedented transfer of wealth and power from West to East, according to the US intelligence chief.
Michael McConnell, the director of national intelligence, predicted rising demand for scarce supplies of food and fuel, strategic competition over new technologies, and the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
"What I'm suggesting -- there's an increased potential for conflict," McConnell said in a speech Thursday to intelligence professionals in Nashville, Tennessee.
"During the period of this assessment, out to 2025, the probability for conflict between nations and within nation-state entities will be greater," he said.
Conditions for "large casualty terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, or less likely, nuclear materials" also will increase during that period, he said.
McConnell described a multi-polar world in 2025 shaped by the rise of China, India and Brazil, whose economies will by then match those of the western industrial states.
"In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power, now underway, as noted from West to East is without precedent in modern history," McConnell said.
Territorial expansion and military rivalries are not likely but cannot be ruled out, he said.
"We judge these sweeping changes will not trigger a complete breakdown of the current international system, but the next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks and many, many challenges," he said.
By 2025, China is likely to have the world's second largest economy and to have emerged as a major military power, the largest importer of natural resources and the largest contributor to world pollution.
"China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country," he said.
India will have either the third or second largest economy and will press to become "one of the significant poles of this new world," he said.
Russia also will be part of that group but only if it expands and diversifies its economy and integrates it with the world global economy, he said.
"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, demographics, access to natural resources, investments and technological innovation. There will be a struggle to acquire technology advantage as the key enabler for dominance," he said.
Michael McConnell, the director of national intelligence, predicted rising demand for scarce supplies of food and fuel, strategic competition over new technologies, and the spread of weapons of mass destruction.
"What I'm suggesting -- there's an increased potential for conflict," McConnell said in a speech Thursday to intelligence professionals in Nashville, Tennessee.
"During the period of this assessment, out to 2025, the probability for conflict between nations and within nation-state entities will be greater," he said.
Conditions for "large casualty terrorist attacks using chemical, biological, or less likely, nuclear materials" also will increase during that period, he said.
McConnell described a multi-polar world in 2025 shaped by the rise of China, India and Brazil, whose economies will by then match those of the western industrial states.
"In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power, now underway, as noted from West to East is without precedent in modern history," McConnell said.
Territorial expansion and military rivalries are not likely but cannot be ruled out, he said.
"We judge these sweeping changes will not trigger a complete breakdown of the current international system, but the next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks and many, many challenges," he said.
By 2025, China is likely to have the world's second largest economy and to have emerged as a major military power, the largest importer of natural resources and the largest contributor to world pollution.
"China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country," he said.
India will have either the third or second largest economy and will press to become "one of the significant poles of this new world," he said.
Russia also will be part of that group but only if it expands and diversifies its economy and integrates it with the world global economy, he said.
"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, demographics, access to natural resources, investments and technological innovation. There will be a struggle to acquire technology advantage as the key enabler for dominance," he said.
Monday, October 06, 2008
Friday, October 03, 2008
French PM Says World "On Edge of Abyss"
French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said on Friday the world stood on the "edge of the abyss", gripped by a global financial crisis now threatening industry, trade and jobs worldwide.
Fillon's words echoed a growing sense of alarm sweeping EU capitals ahead of an expected U.S. Congressional vote on Friday on a $700 billion bailout plan for the financial industry. Approval is far from certain.
The House of Representatives shocked world markets on Monday by rejecting a previous draft, wary of popular anger over the housing market collapse that triggered the crisis and high risk financial ventures that collapsed under the burden.
Prime Minister Fillon, whose country is hosting an emergency summit of Italian, British and German leaders on Saturday, said only collective action could solve the financial crisis. He said he would not rule out any solution to stop any bank failing.
"The world is on the edge of the abyss because of an irresponsible system," Fillon said, alluding to widespread anger over past lax regulation of financial markets and excessive lending.
Fillon said President Nicolas Sarkozy would propose at the emergency meeting measures to unfreeze credit and coordinate economic and monetary strategies.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet sounded an alarm on Friday's expected vote in the U.S. Congress.
"(U.S. Treasury) Secretary (Henry) Paulson's plan obviously must be passed," he told Europe 1 Radio.
"It must be. It is necessary."
Bad news mounted in the European financial sector.
In Switzerland, UBS AG, hardest hit among European banks by its exposure to subprime-related holdings, said it would cut 2,000 investment banking jobs -- on top of the 4,100 positions cut in the past year.
Worries grew that even if Washington agrees on the package, it will not be enough to resolve deeper-rooted weakness. New data showed that a U.S. recession is nearing and Europe's economy is worsening.
"Investors expect the U.S. House to approve the bailout, but even if that happens, it would have a neutral impact on the market as its effectiveness is still questionable," said Takahito Murai, general manager of equities at Nozomi Securities in Tokyo.
A collapse in the U.S. housing market and resulting "bad mortgages" has undermined confidence in the financial sector, with inter-bank lending and credit to businesses and private individuals all but seizing up. Central Banks have injected billions of dollars to maintain some flow of funds.
Fillon's words echoed a growing sense of alarm sweeping EU capitals ahead of an expected U.S. Congressional vote on Friday on a $700 billion bailout plan for the financial industry. Approval is far from certain.
The House of Representatives shocked world markets on Monday by rejecting a previous draft, wary of popular anger over the housing market collapse that triggered the crisis and high risk financial ventures that collapsed under the burden.
Prime Minister Fillon, whose country is hosting an emergency summit of Italian, British and German leaders on Saturday, said only collective action could solve the financial crisis. He said he would not rule out any solution to stop any bank failing.
"The world is on the edge of the abyss because of an irresponsible system," Fillon said, alluding to widespread anger over past lax regulation of financial markets and excessive lending.
Fillon said President Nicolas Sarkozy would propose at the emergency meeting measures to unfreeze credit and coordinate economic and monetary strategies.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet sounded an alarm on Friday's expected vote in the U.S. Congress.
"(U.S. Treasury) Secretary (Henry) Paulson's plan obviously must be passed," he told Europe 1 Radio.
"It must be. It is necessary."
Bad news mounted in the European financial sector.
In Switzerland, UBS AG, hardest hit among European banks by its exposure to subprime-related holdings, said it would cut 2,000 investment banking jobs -- on top of the 4,100 positions cut in the past year.
Worries grew that even if Washington agrees on the package, it will not be enough to resolve deeper-rooted weakness. New data showed that a U.S. recession is nearing and Europe's economy is worsening.
"Investors expect the U.S. House to approve the bailout, but even if that happens, it would have a neutral impact on the market as its effectiveness is still questionable," said Takahito Murai, general manager of equities at Nozomi Securities in Tokyo.
A collapse in the U.S. housing market and resulting "bad mortgages" has undermined confidence in the financial sector, with inter-bank lending and credit to businesses and private individuals all but seizing up. Central Banks have injected billions of dollars to maintain some flow of funds.
Thursday, October 02, 2008
France Seeks €300 Billion Rescue Fund for Europe
Maybe the monetary system is failing because it is no longer relevant?
France heaped pressure on Gordon Brown last night by floating an ambitious plan for a ¤300 billion (£237 billion) bailout fund to rescue crippled banks across Europe.
As the world held its breath on the fate of America’s $700 billion bank bailout plan, President Sarkozy was seeking the backing of European leaders for his own lifeboat.
Mr Brown also faced demands for action from British banks, furious that the Irish Republic’s unilateral guarantee of all bank savings on Tuesday was robbing them of precious deposits. The British Bankers’ Association, which represents high street banks, said that the move was anti-competitive and that it was raising the issue with Dublin. Some banks would like to see the UK respond with its own explicit guarantee.
The Prime Minister has begun to set up an emergency committee to take charge of Britain’s response to the crisis. The body will be similar to Cobra, which is composed of ministers and government officials and meets regularly during crises such as last summer’s floods. Its secretariat will be run from the Cabinet Office.
Mr Sarkozy, whose country holds the European presidency, is seeking Mr Brown’s support before an emergency summit, scheduled tentatively for Saturday, with Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, and Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor. His proposal was greeted with scepticism in Britain and outright hostility in Germany. It appears to involve the creation of a Europe-wide emergency fund that would be used to prop up banks when national governments are unable to intervene.
Ms Merkel said that Germany could not and would not issue a blank cheque for all banks, “regardless of whether they behave in a responsible manner or not”.
Amid the confusion and bickering between governments, France denied at first that it had put forward a proposal for a fund at all and then, after admitting that it had done so, denied that it would cost ¤300 billion. Paris said that the figure had come from the Dutch Government. Officials in The Hague said that they had no idea what the French were talking about.
Mr Brown is expected to announce his new crisis committee today or tomorrow at the same time as his reshuffle to replace Ruth Kelly, the Transport Secretary, who has asked to step down. Ed Miliband, one of Mr Brown’s key lieutenants, could be promoted. There is still a question mark hanging over Alistair Darling’s future as Chancellor.
France heaped pressure on Gordon Brown last night by floating an ambitious plan for a ¤300 billion (£237 billion) bailout fund to rescue crippled banks across Europe.
As the world held its breath on the fate of America’s $700 billion bank bailout plan, President Sarkozy was seeking the backing of European leaders for his own lifeboat.
Mr Brown also faced demands for action from British banks, furious that the Irish Republic’s unilateral guarantee of all bank savings on Tuesday was robbing them of precious deposits. The British Bankers’ Association, which represents high street banks, said that the move was anti-competitive and that it was raising the issue with Dublin. Some banks would like to see the UK respond with its own explicit guarantee.
The Prime Minister has begun to set up an emergency committee to take charge of Britain’s response to the crisis. The body will be similar to Cobra, which is composed of ministers and government officials and meets regularly during crises such as last summer’s floods. Its secretariat will be run from the Cabinet Office.
Mr Sarkozy, whose country holds the European presidency, is seeking Mr Brown’s support before an emergency summit, scheduled tentatively for Saturday, with Silvio Berlusconi, the Italian Prime Minister, and Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor. His proposal was greeted with scepticism in Britain and outright hostility in Germany. It appears to involve the creation of a Europe-wide emergency fund that would be used to prop up banks when national governments are unable to intervene.
Ms Merkel said that Germany could not and would not issue a blank cheque for all banks, “regardless of whether they behave in a responsible manner or not”.
Amid the confusion and bickering between governments, France denied at first that it had put forward a proposal for a fund at all and then, after admitting that it had done so, denied that it would cost ¤300 billion. Paris said that the figure had come from the Dutch Government. Officials in The Hague said that they had no idea what the French were talking about.
Mr Brown is expected to announce his new crisis committee today or tomorrow at the same time as his reshuffle to replace Ruth Kelly, the Transport Secretary, who has asked to step down. Ed Miliband, one of Mr Brown’s key lieutenants, could be promoted. There is still a question mark hanging over Alistair Darling’s future as Chancellor.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Putin Lashes US for Economic Failures
The Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin lashed out at the United States today for what he said was its inability to deal with the financial crisis affecting the global economy.
In remarks unlikely to go down well in Washington, Mr Putin was especially critical of Congress's rejection of a $700 billion bank bailout – a rejection that hit Russian financial markets particularly hard.
“Everything that is happening in the economic and financial sphere has started in the United States. This is a real crisis that all of us are facing," the former president told a government meeting in Moscow.
“And what is really sad is that we see an inability to take appropriate decisions. This is no longer irresponsibility on the part of some individuals, but irresponsibility of the whole system, which as you know had pretensions to (global) leadership."
Highly leveraged Russian companies have been hit hard by the credit crunch, which has made it virtually impossible to secure borrowing abroad.
The main Russian stock indices are more than 50 per cent down from their May peaks, far outstripping losses on more mature Western markets, and trading has been repeatedly suspended over the past two weeks.
Analysts say foreign investor confidence has been hit by Russia's actions during the recent conflict in Georgia, as well as the Government's attitude towards Western energy companies trying to operate in Russia and other former Soviet states.
Mr Putin said today that Russia would allocate 175 billion roubles (£3.85 billion) of budget funds in 2009 to support the domestic financial market.
In remarks unlikely to go down well in Washington, Mr Putin was especially critical of Congress's rejection of a $700 billion bank bailout – a rejection that hit Russian financial markets particularly hard.
“Everything that is happening in the economic and financial sphere has started in the United States. This is a real crisis that all of us are facing," the former president told a government meeting in Moscow.
“And what is really sad is that we see an inability to take appropriate decisions. This is no longer irresponsibility on the part of some individuals, but irresponsibility of the whole system, which as you know had pretensions to (global) leadership."
Highly leveraged Russian companies have been hit hard by the credit crunch, which has made it virtually impossible to secure borrowing abroad.
The main Russian stock indices are more than 50 per cent down from their May peaks, far outstripping losses on more mature Western markets, and trading has been repeatedly suspended over the past two weeks.
Analysts say foreign investor confidence has been hit by Russia's actions during the recent conflict in Georgia, as well as the Government's attitude towards Western energy companies trying to operate in Russia and other former Soviet states.
Mr Putin said today that Russia would allocate 175 billion roubles (£3.85 billion) of budget funds in 2009 to support the domestic financial market.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Asian Markets Fall Sharply at Opening
The historic carnage on Wall Street spread to Asia Tuesday, with stocks across the region plunging after Congress rejected a rescue plan that investors had hoped would bolster volatile financial markets.
All major stock markets in the region tumbled sharply, succumbing to heightened fears of a broader global credit crisis.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index shed more than 544 points, or 4.6 percent, to 11,199.07 after losing 1.3 percent Monday.
Key indices in Australia and New Zealand were both down about 4 percent, Seoul's Kospi lost 3.5 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined 5.5 percent.
The weighted price index of the Taiwan Stock market, which was closed Monday due to a typhoon, fell 6.1 percent, even after Taiwanese Vice Premier Paul Chiu urged investors to have confidence in the island's export-driven economy and its financial markets.
The selling in Asia came after world stock markets tumbled Monday amid a flurry of government bank rescues in Europe that had investors on edge even before the House voted to reject the Bush administration's rescue plan.
The House of Representatives on Monday defeated a $700 billion emergency bailout package for the U.S. financial system, shocking capital and stock markets around the world. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 777 points, its biggest single-day fall, topping the 684 points it lost on the first day of trading after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
The downturn sapped the dollar overnight. The greenback was trading at 103.90 yen Tuesday morning in Asia from above 106 yen a day earlier, adding further pressure on major exporters.
Latin American markets were still open when news that lawmakers on Capitol Hill had rejected the bailout sent investors running for the exits from Mexico City to Buenos Aires.
Stocks in Europe had earlier ended lower, although less dramatically, as market players fretted about the health of the world's financial system, even with a U.S. bailout.
All major stock markets in the region tumbled sharply, succumbing to heightened fears of a broader global credit crisis.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index shed more than 544 points, or 4.6 percent, to 11,199.07 after losing 1.3 percent Monday.
Key indices in Australia and New Zealand were both down about 4 percent, Seoul's Kospi lost 3.5 percent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined 5.5 percent.
The weighted price index of the Taiwan Stock market, which was closed Monday due to a typhoon, fell 6.1 percent, even after Taiwanese Vice Premier Paul Chiu urged investors to have confidence in the island's export-driven economy and its financial markets.
The selling in Asia came after world stock markets tumbled Monday amid a flurry of government bank rescues in Europe that had investors on edge even before the House voted to reject the Bush administration's rescue plan.
The House of Representatives on Monday defeated a $700 billion emergency bailout package for the U.S. financial system, shocking capital and stock markets around the world. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 777 points, its biggest single-day fall, topping the 684 points it lost on the first day of trading after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
The downturn sapped the dollar overnight. The greenback was trading at 103.90 yen Tuesday morning in Asia from above 106 yen a day earlier, adding further pressure on major exporters.
Latin American markets were still open when news that lawmakers on Capitol Hill had rejected the bailout sent investors running for the exits from Mexico City to Buenos Aires.
Stocks in Europe had earlier ended lower, although less dramatically, as market players fretted about the health of the world's financial system, even with a U.S. bailout.
Monday, September 29, 2008
European Bank Fortis Partially Nationalized
Dutch-Belgian bank and insurance giant Fortis NV was given a 11.2 billion euro ($16.4 billion) lifeline to avert insolvency as part of a wider bailout plan agreed to by Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, officials said Sunday.
Belgium’s Prime Minister Yves Leterme said the bailout shows account holders and investors that Fortis will not be allowed to fall victim to the global credit crisis.
Leterme announced the deal after weekend talks between the three countries, European Union and national banking officials.
The deal will force the bank — which has headquarters in both Brussels and the Dutch city of Utrecht — to sell its stake in Dutch bank ABN Amro, which it partially took over last year. Fortis paid 24 billion euros for its share of ABN.
Fortis Chairman Maurice Lippens will be forced to resign and will be replaced by a candidate from outside the company, Leterme said.
“We have taken up our responsibility, we did not abandon” account holders, Leterme told reporters.
Under the bailout, Belgium will invest 4.7 billion euros ($6.88 billion) and the Netherlands 4 billion euros ($5.86 billion) in Fortis’ banking operations in the two countries. In return, they each receive 49 percent ownership in those national arms of the bank.
Luxembourg will invest 2.7 billion euros ($3.95 billion) in the bank’s Luxembourg operations, also for a 49 percent stake.
The deal, orchestrated by the three neighboring countries and EU Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet, is meant to restore confidence in the bank before the reopening of markets on Monday after a tumultuous week in which Fortis’ shares imploded.
Belgian officials also announced Sunday that they planned to offer better guarantees for all retail deposits at Fortis, the country’s largest bank and largest private employer.
Fortis named its third chief executive officer in as many months Friday after insolvency fears caused the company’s shares to tumble to 5.18 euros ($7.56), their lowest level in more than a decade. The shares have lost more than three-fourths of their value in the past year.
Fortis denies any imminent solvency problems, but it has been in trouble since it took part in a three-bank consortium last year that acquired ABN Amro in a 70 billion euros ($102.5 billion) deal that was the largest takeover in the history of the banking industry.
Belgium’s Prime Minister Yves Leterme said the bailout shows account holders and investors that Fortis will not be allowed to fall victim to the global credit crisis.
Leterme announced the deal after weekend talks between the three countries, European Union and national banking officials.
The deal will force the bank — which has headquarters in both Brussels and the Dutch city of Utrecht — to sell its stake in Dutch bank ABN Amro, which it partially took over last year. Fortis paid 24 billion euros for its share of ABN.
Fortis Chairman Maurice Lippens will be forced to resign and will be replaced by a candidate from outside the company, Leterme said.
“We have taken up our responsibility, we did not abandon” account holders, Leterme told reporters.
Under the bailout, Belgium will invest 4.7 billion euros ($6.88 billion) and the Netherlands 4 billion euros ($5.86 billion) in Fortis’ banking operations in the two countries. In return, they each receive 49 percent ownership in those national arms of the bank.
Luxembourg will invest 2.7 billion euros ($3.95 billion) in the bank’s Luxembourg operations, also for a 49 percent stake.
The deal, orchestrated by the three neighboring countries and EU Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet, is meant to restore confidence in the bank before the reopening of markets on Monday after a tumultuous week in which Fortis’ shares imploded.
Belgian officials also announced Sunday that they planned to offer better guarantees for all retail deposits at Fortis, the country’s largest bank and largest private employer.
Fortis named its third chief executive officer in as many months Friday after insolvency fears caused the company’s shares to tumble to 5.18 euros ($7.56), their lowest level in more than a decade. The shares have lost more than three-fourths of their value in the past year.
Fortis denies any imminent solvency problems, but it has been in trouble since it took part in a three-bank consortium last year that acquired ABN Amro in a 70 billion euros ($102.5 billion) deal that was the largest takeover in the history of the banking industry.
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