National Stakes High in Louisiana Senate Election

Louisiana is behind the times compared to the national stage...

Although Louisiana does not figure to be a battleground state in the presidential election, its closely contested Senate race will be in the crosshairs of both parties and of various outside political groups that will weigh in with their own media ads this fall.

That U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu of New Orleans is considered to be the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent and the Republicans' best - some say only - target to turn a Senate seat shows how dire prospects are for the GOP this year.

While polls and her electoral history suggest that Landrieu is beatable, she shows more strength than one normally attributes to the vulnerable. In a recent Southern Media poll, 61 percent of respondents had a "favorable impression" of Landrieu, and she led state Treasurer John Kennedy, 46 percent to 40 percent, in a trial heat. (The other Republican candidate, unknown Jacques Boudreaux, will be barely a speed bump for the party-endorsed Kennedy in the Sept. 6 closed primary.)

Yet Kennedy's favorable rating matches Landrieu's, while his unfavorable rating is only 10 percent to her 34 percent. Fewer voters know him compared to the senator, so he has room to grow.

Geographically, the state is cleanly split between the two in the poll. Landrieu dominates in the New Orleans metro area and leads comfortably in Baton Rouge metro and the bayou and river regions. Kennedy is clearly ahead in North Louisiana and Acadiana-Southwest.

In other numbers that count, the senator holds a 2-1 lead over the challenger in their campaign bank accounts.

Still, the key numbers of the survey are that four months before the election, both candidates are in the 40s. That puts the incumbent in a danger zone and the challenger within striking distance.

As has been pointed out, the two are pursuing campaign themes the opposite of their national counterparts. Kennedy trumpets Barack Obama's message of fundamental change, while Landrieu, like John McCain, stresses her experience and effectiveness.

The irony of the change candidate is not lost of those who remember Kennedy in his 2004 Senate campaign as a populist Democrat, who criticized eventual winner David Vitter as a lackey of the Bush administration.

Yet, the challenger has a strong political partner where it matters most, at the top of the November ballot.

With polls spotting McCain a double-digit lead in Louisiana, Kennedy is wisely trying to nationalize the Senate election. He has criticized Landrieu's endorsement of Obama, whom he says embodies the liberalism of old Europe (although that's not the continent many white voters have in mind regarding the Democrat).